Highlights
- •Fatty liver disease is a growing cause of cirrhosis and liver cancer globally.
- •Disease burden is expected to increase with the epidemics of obesity and diabetes.
- •Modeling shows slow growth in total cases and greater increase in advanced cases.
- •Mortality and advanced liver disease will more than double during 2016–2030.
Background & Aims
Methods
Results
Conclusions
Lay summary
Graphical abstract

Keywords
Introduction
- Chalasani N.
- Younossi Z.
- Lavine J.E.
- Diehl A.M.
- Brunt E.M.
- Cusi K.
- et al.
- Chalasani N.
- Younossi Z.
- Lavine J.E.
- Diehl A.M.
- Brunt E.M.
- Cusi K.
- et al.
Materials and methods
Model
New NAFLD cases
Prevalence
- Chalasani N.
- Younossi Z.
- Lavine J.E.
- Diehl A.M.
- Brunt E.M.
- Cusi K.
- et al.
NASH status
- Chalasani N.
- Younossi Z.
- Lavine J.E.
- Diehl A.M.
- Brunt E.M.
- Cusi K.
- et al.
Mortality
Transplants
Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN). OPTN data as of October 28. 2016. 2016 2016 [cited 2016 November 6, 2016]; Available from: https://optn.transplant.hrsa.gov/data/.
Results
NAFLD population

China | France | Germany | Italy | Japan | Spain | UK | US | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 Country population (000) | 1,382,300 | 64,700 | 80,700 | 59,800 | 126,600 | 46,100 | 64,200 | 324,100 |
2030 Country population (000) | 1,415,500 | 68,000 | 79,300 | 59,100 | 120,600 | 45,900 | 68,600 | 355,800 |
Adult obesity prevalence (BMI) | ≥25 kg/m2 | ≥30 kg/m2 | ≥30 kg/m2 | ≥30 kg/m2 | ≥25 kg/m2 | ≥30 kg/m2 | ≥30 kg/m2 | ≥30 kg/m2 |
2016 | 26.9% | 15.9% | 25.2% | 10.9% | 23.9% | 18.0% | 26.9% | 39.6% |
2030 | 28.4% | 17.7% | 26.1% | 11.4% | 24.5% | 18.9% | 28.6% | 41.7% |
NAFLD | ||||||||
2016 Total cases | 243,661,000 | 13,982,000 | 18,447,000 | 15,217,000 | 22,666,000 | 10,532,000 | 14,079,000 | 85,266,000 |
2016 Prevalence (all ages) | 17.6% | 21.6% | 22.9% | 25.4% | 17.9% | 22.9% | 21.9% | 26.3% |
2030 Total cases | 314,580,000 | 16,046,000 | 20,945,000 | 17,421,000 | 22,735,000 | 12,653,000 | 16,921,000 | 100,901,000 |
2030 Prevalence (all ages) | 22.2% | 23.6% | 26.4% | 29.5% | 18.8% | 27.6% | 24.7% | 28.4% |
NAFL | ||||||||
2016 Total cases | 211,049,000 | 11,676,000 | 15,122,000 | 12,611,000 | 18,904,000 | 8,728,000 | 11,476,000 | 67,949,000 |
2016 Prevalence (all ages) | 15.3% | 18.1% | 18.7% | 21.1% | 14.9% | 18.9% | 17.9% | 21.0% |
2030 Total cases | 266,318,000 | 12,657,000 | 16,206,000 | 13,675,000 | 18,415,000 | 9,966,000 | 13,168,000 | 73,898,000 |
2030 Prevalence (all ages) | 18.8% | 18.6% | 20.4% | 23.1% | 15.3% | 21.7% | 19.2% | 20.8% |
NASH | ||||||||
2016 Total cases | 32,612,300 | 2,305,800 | 3,325,400 | 2,605,700 | 3,761,900 | 1,803,700 | 2,602,700 | 17,316,700 |
2016 Prevalence (all ages) | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.3% |
2030 Total cases | 48,262,200 | 3,388,900 | 4,739,000 | 3,746,400 | 4,320,400 | 2,687,300 | 3,753,300 | 27,002,800 |
2030 Prevalence (all ages) | 3.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.6% |
Incident NAFLD | ||||||||
2016 Total cases | 10,139,100 | 467,600 | 513,200 | 498,500 | 436,700 | 337,000 | 476,700 | 3,444,900 |
2016 Prevalence (all ages) | 7.3 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 10.6 |
2030 Total cases | 10,348,100 | 347,900 | 479,500 | 417,800 | 436,700 | 330,500 | 464,200 | 2,500,000 |
2030 Prevalence (all ages) | 7.3 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 7.0 |
NASH mortality | ||||||||
2016 Total cases | 25,580 | 2,490 | 5,180 | 4,870 | 4,720 | 3,260 | 4,870 | 30,240 |
2016 Prevalence (all ages) | 103,840 | 5,460 | 8,350 | 6,870 | 11,790 | 4,530 | 7,240 | 46,720 |
2030 Total cases | 55,740 | 7,030 | 12,510 | 10,490 | 8,130 | 7,590 | 10,390 | 78,310 |
2030 Prevalence (all ages) | 163,920 | 9,890 | 13,660 | 11,220 | 15,700 | 7,850 | 11,960 | 83,280 |
NAFL population
NASH population

Cirrhosis and end-stage disease

Liver-related mortality
Discussion
- Chalasani N.
- Younossi Z.
- Lavine J.E.
- Diehl A.M.
- Brunt E.M.
- Cusi K.
- et al.
- Sanyal A.J.
- Friedman S.L.
- McCullough A.J.
- Dimick-Santos L.
- American Association for the Study of Liver D, United States FAmerican Association for the Study of Liver D, United States F
- et al.
Financial support
Conflict of interest
Authors’ contributions
Acknowledgements
Supplementary data
- Supplementary data 3
- Supplementary data 2
- Supplementary data 1
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